ABC Circulation December 2015

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For the monthly providers of circulation data the report today the final one for 2015. This also allows us to provide their July-December numbers. For the other papers on our shelves, we will have to wait for another few weeks until they provide that data.

The December’s numbers were nothing by way of excitement with the Daily Star providing something by way of change as it managed a gain on the month of 1,200 whereas and The Sun on the other hand dropping over 700.

In the Sundays there were two big fallers: The Sun on Sunday fell by over 4,000 copies on the month (-7%) and The Sunday Times fell by 3,600 on the month (-5%). Most likely these falls were from events outside these numbers, perhaps the papers whose numbers we don’t have were piling on the Christmas pressure with magazines, supplements and other promotions which had an adverse effect on some other publications here.

December 2015

TitleDec-15Dec-14Nov-15Y/YM/M% Ch Y/Y
Daily Mirror 38,60743,91839,017-5,311-410-12%
Daily Record254279259-25-5-9%
Irish Daily Star54,49854,51553,223-171,2750%
The Sun55,32456,10156,084-777-760-1%
Daily Express2,4052,5592,407-154-2-6%
Irish Daily Mail45,92243,85046,5922,072-6705%
The Daily Telegraph2,4932,7122,479-21914-8%
Financial Times2,2522,3812,313-129-61-5%
The Guardian2,4042,7052,354-30150-11%
The Times2,4652,3692,48896-234%
Morning Market206,624211,389207,216-4,765-592-2%
Daily Star – Sunday15,49618,7817,064-3,2858,432-17%
The Sun/NotW51,73854,88155,739-3,143-4,001-6%
Sunday Mail667883769-216-102-24%
Sunday Mirror27,96433,26028,006-5,296-42-16%
The People10,58712,50810,202-1,921385-15%
Sunday Express2,9893,3743,002-385-13-11%
Sunday Post849520912329-6363%
The Mail on Sunday88,22991,61188,759-3,382-530-4%
The Observer4,5845,1664,669-582-85-11%
The Sunday Telegraph2,0592,4492,149-390-90-16%
The Sunday Times77,71486,05981,475-8,345-3,761-10%
Sunday   Market282,876309,492282,746-26,616130-9%
Total Market489,500520,881489,962-31,381-462-6%

The six month data for July December 2015 furnishes little in the way of surprise or indeed comfort for newspaper publishers. Although the data is as yet incomplete it shows that the Sunday’s under scrutiny are down 9.7% on the year and the morning’s are back 4.2%.

I’ve mentioned this before: if we take the papers that produce data on a monthly basis and look at their six month averages over the last ten periods, back to 2010, then compare it to the six month data of the papers that provide numbers bi-annually their correlation is exactly 1 – they have a “have a perfect positive relationship”!

So, even though we have no data for the likes if the Irish Times and Irish independent on a monthly basis, given the perfect correlation between the two sets of data, you can take it that what’s happening to the papers who provide monthly data is being mirrored by the other papers not reporting data.

The only fly in the ointment in this perfect correlation theory is intervention by way of bulks etc. In the main the monthly papers are not given to inflating their figures with 97% of the total circulation being at retail full rate – the same cannot be said of the bi-annual providers.

July December 2015

PublicationJD 2015JD 2014Diff ‘000Diff %
Irish Independentn/an/a  
Irish Timesn/an/a  
Daily Mirror40,31846,625-6,307-13.5%
Irish Daily Star55,40858,541-3,133-5.4%
The Sun58,48258,909-427-0.7%
Daily Express2,6272,715-88-3.2%
Irish Daily Mail46,01945,1398801.9%
Daily Telegraph2,6282,728-99-3.6%
Financial Times2,3092,388-79-3.3%
The Times2,6032,3822219.3%
PublicationJD 2015JD 2014Diff ‘000Diff %
Sunday Independent n/an/a  
Sunday Worldn/an/a  
Sunday Business Postn/an/a  
Daily Star Sunday13,10618,753-5,648-30.1%
The Sun (Sunday)55,67555,5511240.2%
Irish Sunday Mirror28,88233,727-4,845-14.4%
The People10,78112,558-1,777-14.2%
Sunday Express3,1613,377-216-6.4%
Mail on Sunday85,22695,606-10,381-10.9%
The Observer4,7695,214-445-8.5%
Sunday Telegraph2,2742,481-207-8.3%
Sunday Times79,83187,049-7,217-8.3%