August 2016 ABC Newspaper Circulation

If there’s one thing we learn from the figures this month, it’s that there’s a particular fickleness to tabloid readers. I said in June that the Sun’s €.50 promotion could have cost the company in the region of €600k in foregone revenue for that month. And you’d expect some ROI on that, but the figure for this month is 1,700 above May and a lonely 34 copies above April. The Star is on a downward trajectory (see graphic) coming in at 51,900, 600 down on the month. The Mirror manages to hang on to their previous months figure. The graphic also could indicate that the increase in The Sun’s circulation had a direct negative effect on the circulation of The Mirror – from which they have yet to recover. Overall the tabloids are back 6,000 on the month, 15,000 on the year. Like the sister paper, The Sun on Sunday dropped back 3,200 now that the cover price has doubled from its promotional price. On the bright side The Sunday Times made a decent recovery adding 2,419 on the month. Mornings down 21,000 and the Sundays down 36,000 on the year. Title Aug-16 Aug-15 Jul-16 Y/Y M/M % Ch Y/Y

ABC Jan-June 2016 Overview

If you ever find yourself at soiree, you know the ones where the Ferrero Rocher are tumbling about with reckless abandonment and you are asked ‘how’s the newspaper business in Ireland’ the most succinct answer, where your inquisitor will need to ask little else, is: “Every week we sell 1.5m less newspapers that we did five years ago”. The six month ABC’s were released today or the Island of Ireland Report as its otherwise known. The report shows that newspapers in Ireland are having a torrid time. The market, for National newspapers, is down 6.2% with the morning newspaper market down 5.6% and the Sunday market down 6.5%. The graphic below shows the rate of decline over the past few years and although the decline is slowing or levelling off, it’s still declining at a rate -6.2% per annum which would question the long term viability of newspaper publishing. Market JJ 2016 JJ 2015 Diff ‘000 Diff % Total Sunday 673,179 719,922 -46,743 -6.5% Total Morning 460,910 488,203 -27,293 -5.6%           Total Market* 1,145,064 1,220,403 -75,339 -6.2%   *The Morning Market includes The Herald, the total market also includes the Echo. In the graphic above the

ABC Jan-June 2016 Sunday Market

The Sunday Independent dropped below two hundred thousand to land on 199,000 and even 12,000 bulks couldn’t save them. They lost 14,000 over the year or 6.7% slightly above the overall Sunday Market decline. They further widened the gap between themselves and nearest rival, the Sunday World who had a bad first half dropping 15,000copies (unfortunate top spot accolade for that decline) over the year. It fell just shy of 9% of a decline but was eclipsed by the percentage falls of the Mirror and People. The Sunday Business Post, although falling 1,134 copies, did do the “least worst” as it fell by 3.5%, the smallest fall in percentage terms in the Sunday Market. In that were 1,000 multiples but that’s a marginal reduction on the previous year. Publication JJ 2016 JJ 2015 Diff ‘000 Diff % Sunday Independent  199,210 213,549 -14,339 -6.7% Sunday World 162,938 178,867 -15,929 -8.9% Sunday Business Post 31,364 32,498 -1,134 -3.5%           Daily Star Sunday 15,067 16,217 -1,150 -7.1% The Sun (Sunday) 57,820 53,047 4,773 9.0% Irish Sunday Mirror 26,628 30,601 -3,973 -13.0% The People 9,878 11,324 -1,446 -12.8% Total Tabloid 272,331 290,056 -17,725 -6.1%           Sunday

ABC Jan-June 2016 Morning Market

The top selling paper in the morning market remains the Irish Independent selling 102,000 every day down 7,000 (6%) on the previous year. It has nearly 17,000 in multiple copy sales, up slightly from last year, with 83.5% of its circulation figure ‘actively purchased’. The certificate also shows that it has 1,602 ‘digital subscriptions’, so there is a measure of migration in their 7,000 reduction in sales over the year with at least some of that moving to the digital platform. Its nearest rival is the Irish Times, in at 72,000, down 4,000 (5.5%) on the previous year. It too relies on the multiple copies to the tune of 10,000 every morning – up marginally on last year – and turns in an actively purchased figure of 86%. They also have a digital following, certified at 9,800 subscriptions every morning. Interestingly their cert gives a small geographic breakdown showing that 734 subscriptions are “Overseas (outside the UK/RoI)”. I didn’t have a preconceived number for their overseas figure but, given the flight of people from the country on the last five years, I thought it would have been higher. Publication JJ 2016 JJ 2015 Diff ‘000 Diff % Irish Independent 102,537

ABC Circulation July 2016

Even if a few papers grace us with figures, the monthly figures still churn away. July ABC’s today and for many a tabloid it’s a drop from the previous month of European football. The Tabloids are down nearly 4,000 but looking at The Sun it would seem that their pricing promotion pad off this month in recruiting some purchasers as their post promotion July is higher than their pre-promotion May figure by 7,000. The Mail is back 5,000 on the month but you couldn’t attribute that to European football. The only notable in the Sunday market is the Sunday Sun down 6,000 on the price promotion but, like the daily, ahead on May before the promotion. The Mail on Sunday lost 5,000 on the month and the Sunday Times dropped again this time by 2,300.   Title Jul-16 Jul-15 Jun-16 Y/Y M/M % Ch Y/Y % Ch Y/Y Daily Mirror 36,589 41,236 35,993 -4,647 596 -11% 2% Daily Record 336 337 269 -1 67 0% 25% Irish Daily Star 52,493 55,480 53,513 -2,987 -1,020 -5% -2% The Sun 65,625 60,543 69,115 5,082 -3,490 8% -5% Tabloids 155,043 157,596 158,890 -2,553 -3,847 -2% -2% Daily Express 2,781 2,778 2,575 3 206

ABC Test

The Sunday tabloids, in the main, fell below the Sunday market fall percentage. The Sunday Mirror and Sunday People by far underperformed compared to the market and are currently falling at a double digit pace at 13% each. Those are aggressive levels of decline especially for The People who are currently at just under 10,000 copies each Sunday. The Daily Star Sunday has all but given up on the Republic in terms of marketing, but still manages to find 15,000 customers to buy its product every Sunday. The Sunday Sun survived the drop felt by its direct competitors through a couple of factors I’d suggest. In June they ran a promotion halving the price of the publication to €0.50 throughout the month. The result was that it added just over 9,000 copies to their sales and 26% year on year for the month. So that one off promotion came just in time to be included in the six month figure. We are also dealing here with oranges and clementines. In the first six months of 2015, the period we are comparing to, the Sunday Sun had no multiple copy sales whatsoever. There’s obviously been a policy change of late as

JNLR 2016Q2 National Listenership

Radio listenership has maintained a steady 83% reach over the last four surveys although there are some minor fluctuations in the underlying hard number. In the 2016Q2 survey it’s down 15,000 listeners to 2,992,000 on a year on year basis but up marginally (3,000) on the last book. RTE1 is still the dominant player (which I mention every time and I can’t see that changing in some time). Their last quarter was disappointing dropping 15,000 on the last book to 876,000 but still managing a small comeback showing an increase of 13,000 on the year. The next berth in the table is for the bragging rights of second place – but little else. Still 466,000 behind RTE1 is Today FM who are showing a poor year on year down 47,000 and falling 5,000 on the last book.   And 496,000 behind RTE1 and 30,000 behind TodayFM is Newstalk who did manage to narrow the gap with Today by 6,000. They showed a modest increase book on book of 1,000 but they are still down 21,000 on the year. Further misery was piled on 2FM dropping 13,000 on the previous quarter and showing a 58,000 deficit on the previous year.  I

JNLR 2016Q2 Dublin Listenership

In this 2016Q2 survey radio listenership in Dublin fell to 78% for the first time in some time. I’ve tracked back to 2009Q1 and it still hadn’t once dipped into that region. In this survey it fell 2% on the previous year or 16,000 listeners but only lost 2,000 on the previous book to leave it at 816,000 for the survey. While the underlying figure (816,000) is still higher than previous surveys (changes in sample size etc have had a effect on these numbers) the listening reach and, more so, it’s recent direction should be of some concern. The year on year figures are starker in terms of their declines than the book on book which is to be expected. Eight of the thirteen radio stations surveyed declined book on book with the biggest fallers being RTE1 (-9,000), 2FM (-7,000), Today FM (-6,000) and Spin (-5,000). 98FM had a good quarter adding 8,000 to their numbers. The only station to show any promise was 98FM who added 10% on the quarter to bring them to 115,000 and most of that gain coming in the Q2 where they added 8,000 listeners. Again, like in the national picture, one of the standouts

JNLR 2016Q2 Top 30 and Station Programmes

The tables below show the gains and losses both on the last book and compared to the previous year. If a direct comparison, via the time slot, cannot be made during the comparison – then that programme is not mentioned. So, for example in the year on year gains table, Breakfast Republic is excluded as the time slots are totally different year on year. They are included in the book on book tables as it’s a direct comparison.  Table: Year on Year Gains       16Q2 16Q1 15Q1   YoY   BoB News at One RTE 1 W/D 13.00-13.45  348 350 314   34 11%   -2 -1% The Business RTE 1 Sat 10.00-11.00  310 310 280   30 11%   0 0% Marian Finucane RTE 1 Sat 11.00-13.00  400 393 373   27 7%   7 2% Sunday Miscellany RTE 1 Sun 09.00-10.00  246 239 221   25 11%   7 3% Tubridy RTE 1 W/D 09.00-10.00  319 322 296   23 8%   -3 -1% Table: Book on Book Gains       16Q2 16Q1 15Q1   YoY   BoB Matt Cooper Today W/D 16.30-19.00  139 132 141   -2 -1%   7 5% Playback RTE 1

JNLR 2016Q2 Cork Listenership

Cork shows a listenership reach of 82%, down slightly on both the previous book and year and now stands at 340,000 listeners per day. Book on book none of the stations made any gains except, bizarrely, 2FM who made a 6,000 increase on the last quarter. Both the main stations, Red and 96FM, are in decline of late, the latter by 8,000 and the former by 3,000 over the last quarter The gap between the two main rivals (Red and 96) narrowed from 12,000 to 7,000 over the quarter. Table: Cork Listenership   2016Q2   2016Q1   +/- +/- Ch   2015Q2   +/- +/- Ch   BoB               YoY         Any Radio 340 82% 342 83% -2 1% -1%   344 83% -4 1% -1% Red FM 118 28% 126 30% -8 2% -6%   123 30% -5 2% -4% Cork’s 96FM 111 27% 114 28% -3 1% -3%   115 28% -4 1% -3% RTE Radio 1 99 24% 100 24% -1 0% -1%   91 22% 8 -2% 9% C103 70 17% 71 17% -1 0% -1%   64 15% 6 -2% 9% Today FM 48 12% 48

JNLR 2016Q2 Regionals and Local

The regional data is below and as it’s varied and plentiful, I’ll leave the interpretation to whomever wishes to make one. The local franchise areas and the multi city areas are covered with comparisons to the last year and book. The tables shouldn’t be considered as a comparative as the franchises compete in different areas with vastly different population structures and market dynamics.   Table: Multi-County Reach Franchise 2016Q2 2016Q1 +/- +/- % 2015Q2 +/- +/- % Beat 94 24% 98 25% -4 -4% 99 25% -5 -5% Spin South West 91 22% 91 22% 0 0% 88 21% 3 3% iRadio NW 126 22% 126 22% 0 0% 121 21% 5 4% iRadio NE 96 14% 98 14% -2 -2% 97 14% -1 -1% Table: Multi-City Reach   16Q2 16Q1 +/- +/- ch 15Q2 +/- +/- ch Any Radio 1731 81% 1734 82% 3 1% 0% 1729 82% 2 -1% 0% Radio 1 556 26% 574 27% 18 1% 3% 559 27% -3 -1% -1% 2FM 174 8% 180 8% 6 0% 3% 194 9% -20 -1% -10% Lyric FM 105 5% 101 5% -4 0% -4% 93 4% 12 1% 13% Today FM 221 10% 233 11% 12

June 2016 Irish ABC Newspaper circulation

The figures today bring us to the halfway point in the year. Like last month, there are a few numbers below the surface distorting reality – which I’ll endeavour to bring to the surface. The most notable number is that of The Sun who had a sale of 69,000 for the month, an increase of 19% on the previous month. Initially, the paper declared it was going to run a €0.50 promotion throughout the Euro’s until the 10th June, coinciding with the cup final. However, they decided to stick with it for the whole of the month of July. A costly exercise for the month in terms of forgone revenue (which I’d estimate at €600k if they kept the retailer margin as it was in May), but paying dividends of a 19% increase in sales. The Daily Mail’s figure shows an increase of 4% on the previous month, however, does not reveal the 18% bulks in that figure. In June, one in five of their sales fell into the ‘Multiple Copy Sales ‘ category, whereas in May the same category accounted for 9% of the total sale, that’s why the increase is a noteworthy observation. The Daily Star increased is

News Corp buys into Radio

What an interesting move – News Corp purchased the Wireless group, formally UTV radio. The main station in the wireless group is talkSport reaching 3.1m listeners in the UK every day. Within the Wireless stable are a group of Irish Radio stations: FM104 and Q102 in Dublin, Cork’s 96FM and C103, Limerick’s Live 95FM, LMFM in Louth/Meath, U105 in the Greater Belfast area. Collectively (in the RoI) the stations reach 713,000 listeners every day and UTV105 is listened to by 215,000 daily. For all the stations they have 370,000 Average monthly unique users and 1.7m pageviews per month In their own words: “News Corp believes that Wireless represents an excellent strategic fit with its existing operations, broadening News Corp’s range of services in the UK, Ireland and internationally” This means that the Wireless Group is now backed part of a media colossus and will soon be able to lean on some serious media mussel. Below is a map of the station that are owned by Wireless and the two it sells advertising on behalf of. And should you wonder what the next step is – ” there is significant opportunity to increase engagement and monetisation through cross-promotion and leveraging Wireless’

May 2016 ABC Circulation

May circulation figures arrived and the expression ‘swings and roundabouts’ has never been more appropriate. There seems to have been much movement in the figures and many of the stirrings are below the surface. The Daily Mirror stayed stationary in comparison to April at 39,000. The Sun dropped back 1,700 on the month but is still marginally ahead of last year.  Overall the tabloids were ahead by close to 3,000 on the month. In the Sunday market the big faller was the Sunday Times where it dropped 3,600 on the month to 73,419. Title May-16 May-15 Apr-16 Y/Y M/M % Ch Y/Y Daily Mirror 39,001 41,938 38,963 -2,937 38 -7% Daily Record 281 283 287 -2 -6 -1% Irish Daily Star 51,847 56,799 54,193 -4,952 -2,346 -9% The Sun 58,076 57,594 59,779 482 -1,703 1% Tabloids 149,205 156,614 153,222 -7,409 -4,017 -5% Daily Express 2,485 2,598 2,566 -113 -81 -4% Irish Daily Mail 46,173 51,561 44,633 -5,388 1,540 -10%               The Daily Telegraph 2,334 2,688 2,510 -354 -176 -13% Financial Times 2,234 2,398 2,334 -164 -100 -7% The Guardian 2,185 2,603 2,320 -418 -135 -16% The Times 2,591 2,447 2,568 144 23 6% Morning

ABC Newspaper Sales – a breakdown

It’s as good a time as any to examine the underlying conditions that account for newspaper sales in the ABC circulation figures and this month (May 2016) we have the whole spectrum of allowables in the various publications. Below is a table the papers who have “sales” that fall into categories other than single copy retails sales – i.e. sales that are occurring outside your normal retail environment. These are perfectly legitimate and come with some strict caveats set out by the ABC. Your normal Sale is “A copy sold to a retailer, on a sale or return basis, for resale as a single copy to a consumer”. Perfectly straightforward. Subscriptions: “A single copy sold and distributed to an individual or organisation for a contracted period”. Again easily understood. Multiple copies: Now this is where the ‘conspiracy theories’ about circulations numbers begin with comments like “sure, don’t they just give them away anyway”. Multiple copies are marshalled by the ABC to and a full account of them is given in the monthly ABC certificates. The definition: “Copies purchased by a third party from the publisher, delivered and made available for pick up or receipt by consumers”. So, you’re in, say,

Half price for the Sun

As of May 28 the Sun and Sunday Sun will be €0.50 – but just for the duration of the Euros – effectively all of June and about half of July. Half their normal price in the republic (Normally €1.00) they have gone for a more complex pricing structure on Northern Ireland where the promotion is running as well. It will be 25p Monday to Friday (from 50p), 35p on Saturday (again from 50p) and 50p on Sunday (from 70p). It’s noteworthy in that it’s the first time in a while that pricing has been used as a stick to beat rival publishers and to lure in sales. The ‘cost’, wherever it’s borne, will be significant. The revenue forsaken in a six week promotion of this type will top €1.2m at the till. How that’s split between the retailer and News Int. is anyone’s guess but it’s still a costly exercise.

April 2016 ABC Newspaper Sales

If you saw last month’s figures you may have been lulled in a false scene of security by some of the numbers. But April is most definitely payback time. The Cheltenham pin-prickers and multiple tabloid purchases have all but disappeared and the tabloids took a knock for 4,400 copies collectively month on month. The Daily Star took the brunt of that blow shedding 3,000 copies on the month, but, on a positive note, it’s ahead of where it was in February so perhaps the pages thrown at the festival yielded some dividends. Nothing really spectacular happened in the morning market outside that. Title Apr-16 Apr-15 Mar-16 Y/Y M/M % Ch Daily Mirror 38,963 42,865 39,150 -3,902 -187 -9% Daily Record 287 311 276 -24 11 -8% Irish Daily Star 54,193 59,030 57,239 -4,837 -3,046 -8% The Sun 59,779 58,034 60,995 1,745 -1,216 3% Tabloids 153,222 160,240 157,660 -7,018 -4,438 -4% Daily Express 2,566 2,552 2,454 14 112 1% Irish Daily Mail 44,633 47,586 45,695 -2,953 -1,062 -6%               The Daily Telegraph 2,510 2,609 2,450 -99 60 -4% Financial Times 2,334 2,388 2,263 -54 71 -2% The Guardian 2,320 2,591 2,297 -271 23 -10% The

Today FM

No gains at all across the day. Ian Dempsey slipping back and Anton not quiet settled on an audience figure yet. Matt still hasn’t regained the second slot in the evening but is only 4,000 away from George.           YoY   BoB Time Programme 16Q1 15Q4 15Q1 +/- +/-%   +/- +/-% 07.00-09.00 Ian Dempsey 180 187 194 -14 -7.2%   -7 -3.7% 09.00-12.00 Anton Savage 175 183 212 -37 -17.5%   -8 -4.4% 12.00-14.30 Dermot and Dave 117 121 121 -4 -3.3%   -4 -3.3% 14.30-16.30 Louise Duffy 91 94 98 -7 -7.1%   -3 -3.2% 16.30-19.00 Matt Cooper 132 132 153 -21 -13.7%   0 0.0%