What a difference a month can make and I’d particularly focus on the tabloid section of the Morning market in that statement. September was a good (enough) month for the tabloids especially as the hurlers took two bites of the apple. The Daily Star used those events to do a bit of price promotion and managed to maintain its numbers in September.  

However, October has been a disaster for the Red Tops: The Sun fell 4% to 68,696 – the paper never having been in the 60’s – and the Daily Star stayed this side of it by only 451 copies after dropping nearly 3,000 in the month. Maybe continuing the price promotion would have helped.   

Overall the tabloid market fell nearly 5,500 in the month and is down 18,000 on the year. If you were having a pint with Paddy Power, you’d have to enquire as to the odds of all the tabloids being sub seventy thousand in November. Short odds I’d wager.

Elsewhere, there were only a few minor changes. The Mail and the Mail on Sunday fell back around 1,500 each. The Sunday Times added a healthy 1,772 and, outside that there was very little to report.  

To get a complete view of the Irish newspaper market we have to wait until all the nationals produce their figures. In some cases we will find out ‘yesterdays’ sale in February 2013 and it’s a six month average at that.

But we get a lot of data on a monthly basis, albeit ‘incomplete’, but robust enough to begin to paint a picture of the overall market.

If we use data stretching back to 2006 for morning and Sundays, and manipulate the data somewhat for our convenience, we’re able to see how confident we are in assessing the overall market using jsut the monthly data. Firstly we have to turn the monthly data into six month parcels for comparative purposes and then see how the monthly compares to the six monthly.  

The figures are quiet encouraging: Actually there’s a very healthy 0.98 correlation between the monthly and six monthly data in the mornings and a 0.94 correlation with the Sundays.

So, if over a few months we see the monthly data tanking, you can be assured that when we do get our hands on the sis monthly data – the story will be very much the same.     

correlation

 

Title Oct-12 Oct-11 Sep YoY MoM
Daily Mirror  57,191 56,739 57,234 452 -43
Daily Record 510 545 599 -35 -89
Irish Daily Star 70,450 80,179 73,387 -9,729 -2,937
The Sun 68,696 77,301 71,201 -8,605 -2,505
196,847 214,764 202,421 -17,917 -5,574
Daily Express 2,648 3,056 2,898 -408 -250
Irish Daily Mail 50,039 48,896 51,466 1,143 -1,427
The Daily Telegraph 2,789 2,905 2,926 -116 -137
Financial Times 3,057 3,688 2,890 -631 167
The Guardian 3,152 3,611 3,245 -459 -93
i 777 504 767 273 10
The Independent 0 933 0 -933 0
The Times 2,115 2,171 2,226 -56 -111
Morning Market 261,424 280,528 268,839 -19,104 -7,415
Daily Star - Sunday 24,168 39,122 23,607 -14,954 561
News of the World 66,762 66,998 66,762 -236
Sunday Mail 1,029 1,385 1,320 -356 -291
Sunday Mirror 41,229 64,761 41,173 -23,532 56
The People 18,049 29,586 17,802 -11,537 247
Sunday Express 3,640 4,537 3,700 -897 -60
Sunday Post 654 755 660 -101 -6
The Mail on Sunday 108,791 110,387 110,475 -1,596 -1,684
Independent on Sunday 0 1,437 0 0 0
The Observer 6,370 7,281 6,265 -911 105
The Sunday Telegraph 2,857 2,803 2,788 54 69
The Sunday Times 102,447 111,618 100,675 -9,171 1,772
Sunday  Market 375,996 373,672 375,463 2,324 533
Racing Post 5,340 5,662 5,144 -322 196
Total Market 642,760 659,862 649,446 -17,102 -6,686

 

And the so what....? Well, when the last six monthly ABC was published it allowed us to say, with certainty, that the Morning Market was 531,000 copies each morning. Given that the monthly portion of this data shows the morning market standing at 261,000, then I’d say that it’s a racing certainty (Paddy Power having bought me another) that next month the overall morning market will have fallen below 500,000. However we won’t have evidence of this until February of next year when all the numbers are revealed. By then the alarm bells should be ringing - someone should be reacting.

   monthly morning