The quarterly results for the JNLR have been released and must bring come comfort to the radio sector. Radio listenership was up one point to 83%, back to where it was at the beginning of 2016. A driver in that growth was an increase in radio listenership in Dublin from 75% to 77% over the quarter.

On the back of this increased radio popularity the stations fared well over the year. 2FM managed a two point increase on the same period last year and it brings them back to their 2015 levels. After all the tinkering that the station has been through the ‘win’ is a small vindication of the changes.

In the Dublin franchise, nothing really happened! Radio increased by two points, but it’s not really reflected in the radio figures with only six movers. Radio One dropped a point in the capital while 104, Spin, 2FM and Sunshine all moved up a point.

The quarterly JNLR radio research was released earlier and the first item of note is that the brakes look like they have been finally applied to the overall listenership of both National and Dublin listenership, national steady at 82% and Dublin at 75%.

National

Looking at the stations in the National picture, Today FM is the only station to show a percentage drop book on book - down one point to 10% their lowest figure to date. The rest of the stations remained very much as is/was.

Dublin

In Dublin the picture remains very much the same with only a small slippage from Spin dropping one point. Classic Hits managed to raise their profile in the capital to 3%

The JNLR radio research for the first quarter of 2017 has been released. Nationally it shows there has been an increase in listenership to 82% or 3,083,000, an increase of 101,000 on the last book and 94,000 on the previous year. It also means that the total number listening to the radio is above the three million mark for the first time since 2015.

It should be noted that there has been a small increase in the estimated population in this survey and there are times when the overall percentage may actually go down in comparison to other books, but the absolute number of people could remain the same or indeed increase in some cases, again, due to the change in universe.

Dublin is looked at separately, but it’s interesting to compare the fortunes of the national reach and the Dublin reach the latter not having seen an increase in radio listenership since 2014 and it’s been on a straight decline since mid-2015.

The National stations all improved on a book on book basis with only Today FM showing a drop on a year on year basis. RTE added 24,000 on the last quarter and 13,000 on the year bringing them to 891,000 or 24% (-1%). They had some big gains in the morning with Sean O’Rourke adding 22,000 (7%) book on book.

Behind them is Today FM who increased on the quarter by a healthy 18,000 (5%) to bring them over the four hundred mark to 410,000 (11%) and it’s the station's first improvement book on book since 2015Q1 which has to be seen as a positive.

2FM added 15,000 on the end of last year and is 3,000 ahead of where it was this time last year with Breakfast being their star performer. Newstalk added 16,000 on the quarter and 7,000 on the year. Lyric stands at 144,000 or 4% reach an improvement on both the quarter and on the year.    

While the national and Dublin stations in the main improved the local area franchises took a bit of a pounding book on book with only six of the 17 showing an improvement.

Table: Radio Reach

Graphic: Reach

 Graphic: Average Reach per Hour

Currently 75% of the Dublin population tune into radio every day or 820,000 people. This is up 25,000 on the previous book but in percentage terms, it’s down one point. Listenership of radio has been in decline in Dublin for the last six books in succession (in percentage terms) and whilst the national listenership has had a small uplift in this book the Dublin listenership sees no signs of gains.

The latest research shows that out of the twelve stations in the Dublin survey, nine of them show an increase over the last book but only four show a gain on the previous year. RTE1 dominates with 311,000 listeners every day or a 29% reach. It’s up 12,000 on the previous book and 6,000 on the same time last year. Behind them is FM104 with 178,000 listeners, an increase of 9,000 (5%) on the precious book. There’s a gap of 133,000 between first and second and interestingly that gap, at its narrowest was 52,000 in late 2012.

Newstalk added 5,000 this time around to 154,000 (14%) with no change on the previous year. Spin added 13,000 to 138,000 listeners, an increase of 9% which is the (Joint) highest of any of the stations under scrutiny. 98FM came in at 111,000 down 2,000 on the previous book and Q102 added 9% to 84,000.

Today FM lost 4,000 listeners compared to the last quarter and it further distances itself from the capital. In mid 2015, Today FM drew 22% of its listenership base from the capital but now it currently stands at 16%. It’s not alone struggling in the Pale; 2FM lost a further 1,000 this book to 50,000 in Dublin and it’s down 15,000 on the previous year.

Table: Dublin Listenership

Graphic: Dublin Reach

Dublin Top 20

 Table Dublin Programmes

*Spin changed their programme schedule over the period of the research and no direct comparison can be made between the books

Looking at the individual programmes not it shows that RTE1 took all the berths in the top five gains table, book on book, with Marion Finucane gaining 28,000 (9%). 

RTE also take all the prizes in the Year on year table with Sean O’Rourke taking the premier position with a gain of 28,000.In the falls, Countrywide took the biggest hit, book on book, with a 11,000 fall and also looking at it on a year on year basis.

Tables: Gains and Falls

In the Top thirty list RTE manages to take 20 of the 30 slots. Today take 6 with 2FM and Newstalk sharing the rest. The fight for the top spot, held by Morning Ireland with at 47,000 lead, is much as it was last book. Although the gap between first and second has closed a little.

 Table: Top 30

 Station Programmes

RTE1

The only slippage was Morning Ireland and News at One, but the rest of the day saw healthy gains particularly 9:00 to 1:00. Sean O' Rourke had the biggest leap at 7% and Ray D’Arcy and Ronan Collins at 6% growth.

 2FM

On the face of it, nationally, they show increases across the day, with big gains in Breakfast Republic. It masks the poor performance in Dublin.

Today FM

Again, like 2FM, the veneer is covering the cracks. Only one faller, book on book, is Matt Cooper down 2,000. The characters behind the schedules changed between quarters. The 12,000 increase between nine and twelve has a good dose of Anton Savage in there having been on the chair up to December.

Newstalk

No direct comparison with the previous year, but book on book was good bar the breakfast. Moncrieff had a very decent quarter up 17%.

In Cork, radio listenership stands at 83% or 355,000 people, which is up 16,000 on the last book. The big winner this book was Red FM adding 12% or 14,000 and really putting some daylight between it and 96FM.

Today FM also had a solid quarter in Cork adding 6,000 or 14% to its listener base. The only station not to see an increase in listeners was C103 dropping 3,000 over the quarter.

Table: Cork Reach

Graphic: Cork Reach

Table: Cork Programmes

Here’s where we look at the local and regional franchises. Again, they are not comparatives as they simply can’t be compared to each other. I’ve made little or no comment as the data is self explanatory and my outpourings won’t add much. Each is compared to the last book and the last year.

While the nationals and Dublin stations, in the main, improved the local area franchises took a bit of a pounding book on book with only six of the seventeen showing an improvement.

The JNLR radio research has been released and it shows that 81% of the population tune into the radio every day. While that’s a healthy reach, given the fragmentation that's seen in other media, there is an underlying downward trend apparent over the last few books.

In 2009 the reach was a particularly healthy 87% indicating that, on average, it’s dropped about a point a year over the last seven years. I think that has to be seen in perspective to radios biggest geographic market, Dublin, where the decline is much more pronounced. It too was at 87% in ’09 but it has now fallen to a 76% reach, with a quiet rapid decline over the more recent few surveys.

RTE1 still dominates the radio market with a commanding thirteen point lead on its nearest rival Today FM. RTE reaches 24% of the population every day or 880,000 listeners. That’s down 20,000 on the year and static on the last book.

 Graphic: Radio Listenership

Behind RTE1 is Today FM on 392,000 and an 11% reach. This is down 45,000 listeners on the previous year and 5,000 on the last book. The station has had a number of changes in recent times and they look like they are not finished by all accounts. This survey would take in most of the time Anton Savage was on air as he departed early December.

2FM have struggled with a settled format and audience over the last few surveys. The last time they had an increase in listenership was in the 15Q2 book so it good to see that they added some listeners for the first time since then in this book. They are up 10,000 on the previous book but back 29,000 on last year.

Newstalk also made a few changes during the year revamping the breakfast show and moving George Hook. The station added 3,000 on the last book settling them in at a 10% reach but they are back 26,000 listeners on last year.  Lyric has a 4% reach and comes in at 135,000 listeners down marginally on both last year and last book. 

The only stations to make any gains in this book were 2FM and Newstalk.

Graphic: Radio Reach

Table: Radio Shares

Looking at the shares there were some small changes book on book and year on year with 2FM and Newstalk dropping about half-a-point each. Below is the reach of each station throughout the day.  

Graphic: Day Parts

Overall Dublin listenership now stands at 76% or 795,000 people every day. This is down one percentage point on the previous book and four percentage points on the previous year.

It's the sixth successive fall in the Dublin market with no sign of a letup. The graphic below gives a good visual representation of what’s been happening over the past few books.

Like the national scene, the market is dominated by RTE1 with a 28% reach and 299,000 listeners every day. That’s down 2% on the previous year and up marginally on the last book.

Table: Dublin Reach

Newstalk is in the third slot at 149,000 up marginally on the last book but down 10% on the previous year. Spin have had the biggest year on year fall of all the stations down 24,000 (16%) and book on book they are down 8,000 (6%) to land at 125,000. 98FM, Sunshine and FM104 all fell foul of the book recording falls on the previous quarter with only Q102 and Newstalk adding to their numbers.

98FM lost 5,000 on the last book but are still up 10,000 on the previous year. Q102 added 4,000 on the year to reach 77,000 and adding 5,000 or 7% on the last book.

Today have struggled in the metropolis and are now reaching 70,000 which is down 20,000 (22%) on last year and they are stationary on the previous book.

Graphic: Dublin Reach

The long term trend for Dublin listenership is downward and gained some acceleration since 15Q3. 

Graphic: Station Reach:

The graphics give a good snapshot as to what’s happening over the long term. You can see above the way RTE are edging ahead whereas FM104, Newstalk and Spin had all curved downwards on the last few surveys.

At the smaller end of the market some of the movements are much more pronounced most notably Today FM, 2FM and Classic Hits.

Graphic: Station Reach:

In terms of the Dublin top 20, there’s been a bit of a coup! Marion’s crown has been toppled by Morning Ireland to take the top slot and to add insult to injury, Sean O’Rourke has just nicked the third spot from her second programme – by dropping less that her fall it has to be said. But a win is a win!

Dublin Top 20

Station Programmes - Dublin

*A few of the programme time slots have changed and are therefore are not directly comparable year on year. They are comparable on a book on book basis

It’s worth looking at the absolute dominance of RTE1 in the Dublin market. Looking beyond that, the Newstalk line is interesting where it dominates the other stations in the early part of the day, until around midday, and then it falls behind FM104 and 98FM by 1:00pm.

The part of the research that is most repurposed by the reporting media is the pecking order of the ‘talent’ in terms of the top 30. Note: the time slots for certain programmes have changed over the year (not book on book) and therefore, for the purposes of the Gains/Falls, they have been excluded as the comparative would be skewed.

The year picture was good for RTE1 with wins for Sunday Miscellany and Tubridy. The gains were very much outweighed by the losses in numbers where they suffered badly with Saturday Sport and The Week

Note: The Gains are Falls are drawn from the top thirty programmes and not the complete programming schedule - something I'll correct from the next time out

Table: Year on Year Gains

 Table: Year on Year Falls

Book on book Phil Cawley did well adding 12%. Newstalk breakfast, one of the format changes added 6% book on book giving that time slot some hope. In terms of falls, it looks like the whole Saturday afternoon schedule took a bit of a beating.  

Table: Book on Book Gains

Table: Book on Book Falls

Morning Ireland is still the most listened to programme at 448,000 listeners every morning and 61,000 ahead of Liveline at this point. Sean O’Rourke gained a place and is on 332,000 the same as his old slot News at One

Table: Top 30

A clarification is necessary. Just taking the national stations: when it comes to the station programmes there are 150 different times slots to compare and then by three books! I normally cull this down to the top 30 and it’s from that culled list that the ‘gains’ and ‘fallers’ are taken. I probably should have specified that earlier.

So after a query and a ‘nudge’ below is are the Gains/Fallers taken from the complete programming schedule available nationally. Makes a bit of a difference! I’ll be looking at both scenarios in future.

Table: Book on Book Gains (All)

Table: Book on Book Falls (All)

Table: Year on Year Gains (All)

Table: Year on Year Falls (All)

Station Programmes

RTE1

The whole afternoon schedule is back a little book on book with Liveline being the biggest faller. News at One is down both on the last book and over the twelve months. The morning portion is going in the right direction.  

 2FM

Breakfast Republic put on the breaks and gained a few listeners. Nickey Byrne stayed put and Tracy Clifford gained a few. All are down on 15Q4 but maybe this book shows that the declines have been arrested.   

Today FM

The early part of the day dropped back a little. While the departed Anton was down 19,000 on the year his last book showed signs of arresting the declines he suffered. If the original ‘goal’ for Anton's show was to get to 65% of Rays last figure, then 164,000 is 76% and he’s (was) well covered!

Newstalk

Plenty of changes of late with Breakfast taking a revolving door approach to presenters and George chatting with us through lunchtime. The breakfast club seems to be working gaining 7,000 on the previous book. However, George has dropped back as has the rest of the afternoon schedule.    

Radio listenership in Cork remained at 82% but fell in absolute numbers to 339,000 down 2,000 on the last book and down from 84% (-7,000) on the year.

The two incumbent Cork stations dropped marginally book on book falling 3,000 each since the last survey. Red FM is still the largest station with 117,000 listeners but that’s down 16,000 in last year. 96FM in second place at 106,000 also saw a fall from the previous year of 7,000.

RTE1 dropped 5% on the previous book which was the biggest fall in Cork. Stalemate 2FM managed to a 7% increase (from a low base). Today, 4FM and Newstalk also saw declines book on book.

Table: Cork Listenership

Graphic: Cork Reach

A quick look at the underlying stations for the Cork stations

Table: Cork Stations

PJ and Prenderville are neck and neck in this book at 63,000 each. 

The regional numners are below. You can do with it as you must. The local franchise areas and the multi city areas are covered with comparisons to the last year and book.

The tables shouldn’t be considered as a comparative as the franchises compete in different areas with vastly different population structures and market dynamics.

Without sounding the alarm bells, the first notable in the research this quarter was another fall in the overall radio listenership figure, to 82% or 2,977,000 people every day.

It dropped 27,000 on the year and 15,000 on the previous book. It’s still a very healthy figure and better than some of the other media stats facing a constant barrage of disruption, but the trend is most definitely downward and has been since around 2010.

The different stations have had varying degrees of success/failure. RTE1 had good quarter adding 4,000 on the previous book and 12,000 on the year leaving them at 880,000 (24%). Today FM dropped 13,000 (-3%) on the book and 56,000 (-13%) on the year. It leaves them sub 400k at 397,000 and an 11% reach (the percentage down from 13% last year).

Newstalk was in a similar position dropping 13,000 (-3%) on the book and 35,000 (-9%) on the year arriving to 367,000 (10%). For 2FM it’s yet another bloodletting with this book. Down 9,000 on the last book and 59,000 (-15%) on the year nothing in the revised schedule seems to be working. When you get to the individual slots you’ll see that some of the programming is simply not working with listeners abandoning them in their droves.

2FM dropped their listenership into single digits at 9% and are now the 4th most popular national station, out of the five on offer. It’s the first time ever they dropped into single digits and you can see from the graphics below that the trend looks set to continue.

Lyric were down 3% on the book but were 2,000 better than this time last year.

Graphic: Radio Listenership

It’s worth superimposing the Dublin radio reach on the National figure as it constitutes about 27% of the overall. You can see that the Dublin reach is falling at a much faster rate and has to be affecting the national figure.

Table : Radio Reach

 Graphic: Gains/Falls

Graphics: National Reach

Table: National Shares

The share show little bar that RTE1 gained 1.5% over the year and 2FM lost1%

Graphics: Day Parts

Radio Decline

Just a quick look at the demographics at three year intervals. It charts the fall of Radio listenership scrutinised by demographics. It clearly shows that the younger cohort is moving away from radio rather rapidly.

Like the National picture, the Dublin one is dominated by the downturn in the overall radio listenership down to 77% or 800,000 people every day. This is down four points on the previous year and down 16,000 listeners on the previous book. The trend graphic is a stark picture of a declining listenership in the capital.

Out of the thirteen stations in Dublin, only three managed an increased book on book figure and only two compared to twelve months ago.

RTE1, 98FM and TXFM were the only stations to add numbers book on book which can’t be the most positive thing for Dublin Radio. From a research perspective, the sample sizes were the same in bothe books so there’s no parachute there.

RTE1 still dominates with 297,000 listeners (28%) up fractionally at 1,000 listeners on the last book but down 5,000 on the year.

The biggest faller in numbers this book was FM104, down 14,000 to 174,000 on the book and a 20,000 drop in the year. This was followed by Newstalk down 10,000 (-6%) to 144,000 and down 26,000 one the previous year. Today FM fell by 9,000 to 70,000 in the capital and this drops them below Q102 and into 7th spot.

2FM lost a further 12% (7,000) to move to 51,000 listeners. It shunts them below Sunshine for the first time and pushes them into 9th position in Dublin. Spin fell 7,000 to 133,000 and dropped 14,000 during the year.