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Q3 2016 Results

The JNLR Radio research for Q3 2016 is available .

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It’s a bit much in terms of data, but none the less very interesting given the happenings across the pond over the last twelve months. The UK NRS readership data was released this week giving a plethora of data across various media where publications are available.

It’s worth pointing out that the categories are not exclusive: print is not print only. A person answering that the saw a print edition of a paper may also have seen it via a PC or mobile/tablet.…

ABC Circulation October 2016

“Another Day, another drop”. ABC for October are out and the ever repetitive story of newspaper sales continues.

I’d reckon the market (as under the lamp here and not taking into account the laggards that have a bi-annual certificate) will be down 5% on the previous year, which bizarrely enough is an improvement on this time last year where the same papers were down in or around 8% at this point. So maybe the decline is slowing, but it’s still a decline and a five percent one!…

JNLR 2016Q3 National Listenership

Without sounding the alarm bells, the first notable in the research this quarter was another fall in the overall radio listenership figure, to 82% or 2,977,000 people every day.

It dropped 27,000 on the year and 15,000 on the previous book. It’s still a very healthy figure and better than some of the other media stats facing a constant barrage of disruption, but the trend is most definitely downward and has been since around 2010.

The different stations have had varying degrees of success/failure.…

JNLR 2016Q3 Dublin Listenership

Like the National picture, the Dublin one is dominated by the downturn in the overall radio listenership down to 77% or 800,000 people every day. This is down four points on the previous year and down 16,000 listeners on the previous book. The trend graphic is a stark picture of a declining listenership in the capital.

Out of the thirteen stations in Dublin, only three managed an increased book on book figure and only two compared to twelve months ago.…

JNLR 2016Q3 Top 30 and Station Programmes

In the tables below a comparison is drawn only if the time slots are the same as the period which it's being compared to. If it can’t be made, then the comparative figure it’s left blank. Therefore in the Gains/Falls only programmes that have directly comparable time slots are included.

I threw everything in in one lot and left our some of the java widgets used in previous occasions.…

JNLR 2016Q3 Cork Listenership

Overall Cork listenership dropped marginally to 82% or 341,000 down 2,000. There were some small increases for Red FM, small in comparison to some of the gains it made in previous surveys. They now reach 29% of their franchise with 120,000 listeners.

96FM slipped back by 2,000 to 109,000 and they are now being actively chased for second spot by RTE1 who had a good book adding 8% to their listenership in the region.…

There’s too much here to go into with any detail. I’ve tried to get all the stations in so they get a shout (which is not always the case unfortunately). You can do your own interpretation if you want.

  16Q3 16Q2 +/- +/- ch 15Q2 +/- +/- ch…

The September ABC figures today do little to stir the digits into tapping the keys. All very much as expected with some of the gains made in the July/August period slowly dwindling away this month.

The Sun fell back 1,500 but much of that was self-inflicted. At one point (May) they were running at near 2,000 copies per month in ‘bulks’ but this shrunk to 530 bulks for September and probably accounts for most of their fall.…

August 2016 ABC Newspaper Circulation

If there’s one thing we learn from the figures this month, it’s that there’s a particular fickleness to tabloid readers. I said in June that the Sun’s €.50 promotion could have cost the company in the region of €600k in foregone revenue for that month. And you’d expect some ROI on that, but the figure for this month is 1,700 above May and a lonely 34 copies above April.…

ABC Jan-June 2016 Overview

If you ever find yourself at soiree, you know the ones where the Ferrero Rocher are tumbling about with reckless abandonment and you are asked ‘how’s the newspaper business in Ireland’ the most succinct answer, where your inquisitor will need to ask little else, is: “Every week we sell 1.5m less newspapers that we did five years ago”.

The six month ABC’s were released today or the Island of Ireland Report as its otherwise known. The report shows that newspapers in Ireland are having a torrid time.…

 ABC Jan-June 2016 Sunday Market

The Sunday Independent dropped below two hundred thousand to land on 199,000 and even 12,000 bulks couldn’t save them. They lost 14,000 over the year or 6.7% slightly above the overall Sunday Market decline.

They further widened the gap between themselves and nearest rival, the Sunday World who had a bad first half dropping 15,000copies (unfortunate top spot accolade for that decline) over the year.…

 ABC Jan-June 2016 Morning Market

The top selling paper in the morning market remains the Irish Independent selling 102,000 every day down 7,000 (6%) on the previous year. It has nearly 17,000 in multiple copy sales, up slightly from last year, with 83.5% of its circulation figure ‘actively purchased’. The certificate also shows that it has 1,602 ‘digital subscriptions’, so there is a measure of migration in their 7,000 reduction in sales over the year with at least some of that moving to the digital platform.…

Even if a few papers grace us with figures, the monthly figures still churn away. July ABC’s today and for many a tabloid it’s a drop from the previous month of European football.

The Tabloids are down nearly 4,000 but looking at The Sun it would seem that their pricing promotion pad off this month in recruiting some purchasers as their post promotion July is higher than their pre-promotion May figure by 7,000. The Mail is back 5,000 on the month but you couldn’t attribute that to European football.…

Radio listenership has maintained a steady 83% reach over the last four surveys although there are some minor fluctuations in the underlying hard number. In the 2016Q2 survey it’s down 15,000 listeners to 2,992,000 on a year on year basis but up marginally (3,000) on the last book.

RTE1 is still the dominant player (which I mention every time and I can’t see that changing in some time). Their last quarter was disappointing dropping 15,000 on the last book to 876,000 but still managing a small comeback showing an increase of 13,000 on the year.…

JNLR 2016Q2 Dublin Listenership

In this 2016Q2 survey radio listenership in Dublin fell to 78% for the first time in some time. I’ve tracked back to 2009Q1 and it still hadn’t once dipped into that region. In this survey it fell 2% on the previous year or 16,000 listeners but only lost 2,000 on the previous book to leave it at 816,000 for the survey.

While the underlying figure (816,000) is still higher than previous surveys (changes in sample size etc have had a effect on these numbers) the listening reach and, more so, it’s recent direction should be of some concern.…

The tables below show the gains and losses both on the last book and compared to the previous year. If a direct comparison, via the time slot, cannot be made during the comparison – then that programme is not mentioned. So, for example in the year on year gains table, Breakfast Republic is excluded as the time slots are totally different year on year. They are included in the book on book tables as it’s a direct comparison.…

JNLR 2016Q2 Cork Listenership

Cork shows a listenership reach of 82%, down slightly on both the previous book and year and now stands at 340,000 listeners per day. Book on book none of the stations made any gains except, bizarrely, 2FM who made a 6,000 increase on the last quarter. Both the main stations, Red and 96FM, are in decline of late, the latter by 8,000 and the former by 3,000 over the last quarter

The gap between the two main rivals (Red and 96) narrowed from 12,000 to 7,000 over the quarter.…

JNLR 2016Q2 Regionals and Local

The regional data is below and as it’s varied and plentiful, I’ll leave the interpretation to whomever wishes to make one. The local franchise areas and the multi city areas are covered with comparisons to the last year and book.

The tables shouldn’t be considered as a comparative as the franchises compete in different areas with vastly different population structures and market dynamics.…

The figures today bring us to the halfway point in the year. Like last month, there are a few numbers below the surface distorting reality – which I’ll endeavour to bring to the surface.

The most notable number is that of The Sun who had a sale of 69,000 for the month, an increase of 19% on the previous month. Initially, the paper declared it was going to run a €0.…

News Corp buys into Radio

What an interesting move – News Corp purchased the Wireless group, formally UTV radio. The main station in the wireless group is talkSport reaching 3.1m listeners in the UK every day. Within the Wireless stable are a group of Irish Radio stations: FM104 and Q102 in Dublin, Cork’s 96FM and C103, Limerick’s Live 95FM, LMFM in Louth/Meath, U105 in the Greater Belfast area.…

May 2016 ABC Circulation

May circulation figures arrived and the expression ‘swings and roundabouts’ has never been more appropriate. There seems to have been much movement in the figures and many of the stirrings are below the surface.

The Daily Mirror stayed stationary in comparison to April at 39,000. The Sun dropped back 1,700 on the month but is still marginally ahead of last year.…

ABC Newspaper Sales - a breakdown

It’s as good a time as any to examine the underlying conditions that account for newspaper sales in the ABC circulation figures and this month (May 2016) we have the whole spectrum of allowables in the various publications.

Below is a table the papers who have “sales” that fall into categories other than single copy retails sales – i.e. sales that are occurring outside your normal retail environment.…

As of May 28 the Sun and Sunday Sun will be €0.50 – but just for the duration of the Euros – effectively all of June and about half of July.

Half their normal price in the republic (Normally €1.00) they have gone for a more complex pricing structure on Northern Ireland where the promotion is running as well.…

If you saw last month’s figures you may have been lulled in a false scene of security by some of the numbers. But April is most definitely payback time. The Cheltenham pin-prickers and multiple tabloid purchases have all but disappeared and the tabloids took a knock for 4,400 copies collectively month on month.

The Daily Star took the brunt of that blow shedding 3,000 copies on the month, but, on a positive note, it’s ahead of where it was in February so perhaps the pages thrown at the festival yielded some dividends.…

JNLR 2016Q1 National Listenership

It’s very much depends on what you analyse for the 2016Q1 results. Look at the numbers year on year you get one answer, look at them book on book you get another! In as many places as possible I’ll throw in both so you can draw your own conclusions.

However in a few cases either analysis still yields the same woeful outcome.…

Radio listenership dropped in the capital to 818,000 down 1% on the year and the same book on book. The falls are less pronounced on a book on book basis with but looking at them over the year some of the falls are severe. Double digit decrease in the capital for Newstalk, Today FM, Q102 and 2FM and, of them, only Q102 managed to get something back in the last quarter.

RTE1 are still the dominant force reaching 305,000 listeners.…

Here’s where we look at the local and regional franchises. Again, they are not comparatives as they simply can’t be compared to each other. I’ve made little or no comment as the data is self explanatory and my outpourings won’t add much. Each is compared to the last book and the last year.…

All the top tables and in the interest of tracking the license fee money the book on book numbers are compared so that 2FM can be scrutinised. The Gains and Falls tables likewise are divided into the year on year and book on book. The metric for the gains and falls are subjectively based on actual listeners and not the percentage gain.

If it were percentages (we should really say) we’d be showering Ray D’Arcy with praise for a 19% increase in listeners year on year and also to Alison Curtis getting a 6% increase book on book.…

Each of the national stations are looked at below in terms of their individual programming. There’s a comparison to last quarter and last book in all cases.

 

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 JNLR 2016Q1 Cork Listenership

The Cork figures show the listenership in the franchise is 83% down marginally on both the past quarter and twelve months. This book shows that Red FM, although at 126,000 which is an increase of 14% on the year is back 7,000 book on book.

It ends a bit of a run for the station having been on the up every book until now since 2014Q1. Closest rival 96FM managed a small increase book on book of 1,000.…