2016 Q4 Results

The JNLR Radio research for Q4 2016 is available .

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It’s not really surprising that Cheltenham helped the tabloids as it does every year. Collectively they are up 4,600 on February with The Sun taking the lion's share of that adding 2,400 on the month. Outside that the Morning market was fairly quiet.

The Sunday market doesn’t get a lift from Cheltenham.…

February ABC’s were released and it’s the usual swings and roundabouts. In the morning market, the Mirror and The Sun saw the biggest falls with the Daily Star managing to maintain roughly where it was last month. The Daily Mail’s decline can be partially attributed to a decline in bulks and to a lesser extend a decline in retail sales.

The Daily Star on Sunday defied all odds and managed a 1,300 increase in sales whilst the Sun on Sunday and The Sunday Mirror felt a drop of roughly 700 copies each.…

World and Herald Editorial to merge

Interesting developments in IN&M where they have decided to combine the newsrooms of The Herald and Sunday World into a seven day operation “with a focus on news investigations, top quality sports journalism and entertainment”.

This new setup will report to a “tabloid platform” editor who will be responsible for both the print and digital formats of both titles. The print and digital formats will retain their separate brand identities but their backroom operations will be merged and, interestingly, the titles are “likely to have its own editor under the new arrangement” – so no guarantees there.

There’s no mention of the Daily Star in this arrangement and a notable omission I believe.…

Irish Newspaper Circulation July-Dec 2016 Island of Ireland Report

Probably the bellwether statistic of recent times is the rate of decline in circulation year on year. The Island of Ireland Report July-Dec 2016 shows that in the latter half of 2016 the Sunday and morning markets have reversed any small gains they had made in the last few years.

You can clearly see from the graphic below that, whilst not setting the world alight, the most recent few reports show the market moving somewhat in the right direction and that the rate of decline was ‘improving’ or static at best. This report indicates that the market has fallen in 2016 and the rate of decline is back to where it was around 2012.…

As the Island of Ireland report hit the desk today I'm going to limit the analysis on the January monthly ABC's!  …

JNLR 2016Q4 National Listenership

The JNLR radio research has been released and it shows that 81% of the population tune into the radio every day. While that’s a healthy reach, given the fragmentation that's seen in other media, there is an underlying downward trend apparent over the last few books.

In 2009 the reach was a particularly healthy 87% indicating that, on average, it’s dropped about a point a year over the last seven years. I think that has to be seen in perspective to radios biggest geographic market, Dublin, where the decline is much more pronounced.…

JNLR 2016Q4 Dublin Listenership

Overall Dublin listenership now stands at 76% or 795,000 people every day. This is down one percentage point on the previous book and four percentage points on the previous year.

It's the sixth successive fall in the Dublin market with no sign of a letup. The graphic below gives a good visual representation of what’s been happening over the past few books.…

JNLR 2016Q4 Top 30 and Station Programmes

The part of the research that is most repurposed by the reporting media is the pecking order of the ‘talent’ in terms of the top 30. Note: the time slots for certain programmes have changed over the year (not book on book) and therefore, for the purposes of the Gains/Falls, they have been excluded as the comparative would be skewed.…

JNLR 2016Q4 Cork Listenership

Radio listenership in Cork remained at 82% but fell in absolute numbers to 339,000 down 2,000 on the last book and down from 84% (-7,000) on the year.

The two incumbent Cork stations dropped marginally book on book falling 3,000 each since the last survey. Red FM is still the largest station with 117,000 listeners but that’s down 16,000 in last year. 96FM in second place at 106,000 also saw a fall from the previous year of 7,000.…

The regional numners are below. You can do with it as you must. The local franchise areas and the multi city areas are covered with comparisons to the last year and book.

The tables shouldn’t be considered as a comparative as the franchises compete in different areas with vastly different population structures and market dynamics.…

 ABC Circulation Newspaper Sales December 2016

The final chapter on 2016 with the ABC's for December for a certain amount of papers – we have to wait until the 16th of next month to see the tally for the other papers.

December is traditionally a slow month for papers and many of the days across the month are ‘excluded’ – an allowable feature where, due to circumstances like public holidays or a press failure you can remove those days from your average because of the poor sales.

No surprises this month: the tabloids saw small falls reducing their combined sale for the month by 1,700. The Daily Mail added 1,600 – half from retail sales and half from multiple copy sales.…

Less than ten years ago the Irish Daily Star published their ABC cert for July December 2007. It turned in at 112,040 – a record high (or a new high at that point). The paper had been on a winning streak since 2001 when it first crossed the 100,000 threshold and stayed there until the last six months of 2009. November sees another benchmark for the title as it dips below 50,000 for the first time.…

It’s a bit much in terms of data, but none the less very interesting given the happenings across the pond over the last twelve months. The UK NRS readership data was released this week giving a plethora of data across various media where publications are available.

It’s worth pointing out that the categories are not exclusive: print is not print only. A person answering that the saw a print edition of a paper may also have seen it via a PC or mobile/tablet.…

ABC Circulation October 2016

“Another Day, another drop”. ABC for October are out and the ever repetitive story of newspaper sales continues.

I’d reckon the market (as under the lamp here and not taking into account the laggards that have a bi-annual certificate) will be down 5% on the previous year, which bizarrely enough is an improvement on this time last year where the same papers were down in or around 8% at this point. So maybe the decline is slowing, but it’s still a decline and a five percent one!…

JNLR 2016Q3 National Listenership

Without sounding the alarm bells, the first notable in the research this quarter was another fall in the overall radio listenership figure, to 82% or 2,977,000 people every day.

It dropped 27,000 on the year and 15,000 on the previous book. It’s still a very healthy figure and better than some of the other media stats facing a constant barrage of disruption, but the trend is most definitely downward and has been since around 2010.

The different stations have had varying degrees of success/failure.…

JNLR 2016Q3 Dublin Listenership

Like the National picture, the Dublin one is dominated by the downturn in the overall radio listenership down to 77% or 800,000 people every day. This is down four points on the previous year and down 16,000 listeners on the previous book. The trend graphic is a stark picture of a declining listenership in the capital.

Out of the thirteen stations in Dublin, only three managed an increased book on book figure and only two compared to twelve months ago.…

JNLR 2016Q3 Top 30 and Station Programmes

In the tables below a comparison is drawn only if the time slots are the same as the period which it's being compared to. If it can’t be made, then the comparative figure it’s left blank. Therefore in the Gains/Falls only programmes that have directly comparable time slots are included.

I threw everything in in one lot and left our some of the java widgets used in previous occasions.…

JNLR 2016Q3 Cork Listenership

Overall Cork listenership dropped marginally to 82% or 341,000 down 2,000. There were some small increases for Red FM, small in comparison to some of the gains it made in previous surveys. They now reach 29% of their franchise with 120,000 listeners.

96FM slipped back by 2,000 to 109,000 and they are now being actively chased for second spot by RTE1 who had a good book adding 8% to their listenership in the region.…

There’s too much here to go into with any detail. I’ve tried to get all the stations in so they get a shout (which is not always the case unfortunately). You can do your own interpretation if you want.

  16Q3 16Q2 +/- +/- ch 15Q2 +/- +/- ch…

The September ABC figures today do little to stir the digits into tapping the keys. All very much as expected with some of the gains made in the July/August period slowly dwindling away this month.

The Sun fell back 1,500 but much of that was self-inflicted. At one point (May) they were running at near 2,000 copies per month in ‘bulks’ but this shrunk to 530 bulks for September and probably accounts for most of their fall.…

August 2016 ABC Newspaper Circulation

If there’s one thing we learn from the figures this month, it’s that there’s a particular fickleness to tabloid readers. I said in June that the Sun’s €.50 promotion could have cost the company in the region of €600k in foregone revenue for that month. And you’d expect some ROI on that, but the figure for this month is 1,700 above May and a lonely 34 copies above April.…

ABC Jan-June 2016 Overview

If you ever find yourself at soiree, you know the ones where the Ferrero Rocher are tumbling about with reckless abandonment and you are asked ‘how’s the newspaper business in Ireland’ the most succinct answer, where your inquisitor will need to ask little else, is: “Every week we sell 1.5m less newspapers that we did five years ago”.

The six month ABC’s were released today or the Island of Ireland Report as its otherwise known. The report shows that newspapers in Ireland are having a torrid time.…

 ABC Jan-June 2016 Sunday Market

The Sunday Independent dropped below two hundred thousand to land on 199,000 and even 12,000 bulks couldn’t save them. They lost 14,000 over the year or 6.7% slightly above the overall Sunday Market decline.

They further widened the gap between themselves and nearest rival, the Sunday World who had a bad first half dropping 15,000copies (unfortunate top spot accolade for that decline) over the year.…

 ABC Jan-June 2016 Morning Market

The top selling paper in the morning market remains the Irish Independent selling 102,000 every day down 7,000 (6%) on the previous year. It has nearly 17,000 in multiple copy sales, up slightly from last year, with 83.5% of its circulation figure ‘actively purchased’. The certificate also shows that it has 1,602 ‘digital subscriptions’, so there is a measure of migration in their 7,000 reduction in sales over the year with at least some of that moving to the digital platform.…

Even if a few papers grace us with figures, the monthly figures still churn away. July ABC’s today and for many a tabloid it’s a drop from the previous month of European football.

The Tabloids are down nearly 4,000 but looking at The Sun it would seem that their pricing promotion pad off this month in recruiting some purchasers as their post promotion July is higher than their pre-promotion May figure by 7,000. The Mail is back 5,000 on the month but you couldn’t attribute that to European football.…

Radio listenership has maintained a steady 83% reach over the last four surveys although there are some minor fluctuations in the underlying hard number. In the 2016Q2 survey it’s down 15,000 listeners to 2,992,000 on a year on year basis but up marginally (3,000) on the last book.

RTE1 is still the dominant player (which I mention every time and I can’t see that changing in some time). Their last quarter was disappointing dropping 15,000 on the last book to 876,000 but still managing a small comeback showing an increase of 13,000 on the year.…

JNLR 2016Q2 Dublin Listenership

In this 2016Q2 survey radio listenership in Dublin fell to 78% for the first time in some time. I’ve tracked back to 2009Q1 and it still hadn’t once dipped into that region. In this survey it fell 2% on the previous year or 16,000 listeners but only lost 2,000 on the previous book to leave it at 816,000 for the survey.

While the underlying figure (816,000) is still higher than previous surveys (changes in sample size etc have had a effect on these numbers) the listening reach and, more so, it’s recent direction should be of some concern.…

The tables below show the gains and losses both on the last book and compared to the previous year. If a direct comparison, via the time slot, cannot be made during the comparison – then that programme is not mentioned. So, for example in the year on year gains table, Breakfast Republic is excluded as the time slots are totally different year on year. They are included in the book on book tables as it’s a direct comparison.…

JNLR 2016Q2 Cork Listenership

Cork shows a listenership reach of 82%, down slightly on both the previous book and year and now stands at 340,000 listeners per day. Book on book none of the stations made any gains except, bizarrely, 2FM who made a 6,000 increase on the last quarter. Both the main stations, Red and 96FM, are in decline of late, the latter by 8,000 and the former by 3,000 over the last quarter

The gap between the two main rivals (Red and 96) narrowed from 12,000 to 7,000 over the quarter.…

JNLR 2016Q2 Regionals and Local

The regional data is below and as it’s varied and plentiful, I’ll leave the interpretation to whomever wishes to make one. The local franchise areas and the multi city areas are covered with comparisons to the last year and book.

The tables shouldn’t be considered as a comparative as the franchises compete in different areas with vastly different population structures and market dynamics.…