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Q1 2016 Results

The JNLR Radio research for Q4 2016 is available .

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If you saw last month’s figures you may have been lulled in a false scene of security by some of the numbers. But April is most definitely payback time. The Cheltenham pin-prickers and multiple tabloid purchases have all but disappeared and the tabloids took a knock for 4,400 copies collectively month on month.

The Daily Star took the brunt of that blow shedding 3,000 copies on the month, but, on a positive note, it’s ahead of where it was in February so perhaps the pages thrown at the festival yielded some dividends.…

If you saw last month’s figures you may have been lulled in a false scene of security by some of the numbers. But April is most definitely payback time. The Cheltenham pin-prickers and multiple tabloid purchases have all but disappeared and the tabloids took a knock for 4,400 copies collectively month on month.

The Daily Star took the brunt of that blow shedding 3,000 copies on the month, but, on a positive note, it’s ahead of where it was in February so perhaps the pages thrown at the festival yielded some dividends.…

JNLR 2016Q1 National Listenership

It’s very much depends on what you analyse for the 2016Q1 results. Look at the numbers year on year you get one answer, look at them book on book you get another! In as many places as possible I’ll throw in both so you can draw your own conclusions.

However in a few cases either analysis still yields the same woeful outcome.…

Radio listenership dropped in the capital to 818,000 down 1% on the year and the same book on book. The falls are less pronounced on a book on book basis with but looking at them over the year some of the falls are severe. Double digit decrease in the capital for Newstalk, Today FM, Q102 and 2FM and, of them, only Q102 managed to get something back in the last quarter.

RTE1 are still the dominant force reaching 305,000 listeners.…

Here’s where we look at the local and regional franchises. Again, they are not comparatives as they simply can’t be compared to each other. I’ve made little or no comment as the data is self explanatory and my outpourings won’t add much. Each is compared to the last book and the last year.…

All the top tables and in the interest of tracking the license fee money the book on book numbers are compared so that 2FM can be scrutinised. The Gains and Falls tables likewise are divided into the year on year and book on book. The metric for the gains and falls are subjectively based on actual listeners and not the percentage gain.

If it were percentages (we should really say) we’d be showering Ray D’Arcy with praise for a 19% increase in listeners year on year and also to Alison Curtis getting a 6% increase book on book.…

Each of the national stations are looked at below in terms of their individual programming. There’s a comparison to last quarter and last book in all cases.

 

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 JNLR 2016Q1 Cork Listenership

The Cork figures show the listenership in the franchise is 83% down marginally on both the past quarter and twelve months. This book shows that Red FM, although at 126,000 which is an increase of 14% on the year is back 7,000 book on book.

It ends a bit of a run for the station having been on the up every book until now since 2014Q1. Closest rival 96FM managed a small increase book on book of 1,000.…

ABC Circulation March 2016

Before we dive into the numerics we have to reacquaint ourselves with some of the social aspects of the month gone: St Patrick’s Day, All Ireland Club Finals, Cheltenham, Easter and the 1916 Commemorations and a shutdown of primary and secondary schools for nearly three weeks (which disrupts household patterns which might knock on to purchasing behavior).

The main competition this month is usually between the tabloids fighting for those horse racing punters looking for advice. The tabloids historically threw supplement after supplement at the market and new, albeit transient, buyers were recruited for the week and regular readers strayed and purchased other titles to supplement their normal read on the back of those extra pages.

You can see that this brief affair with the horse fraternity paid dividends with the tabloids adding 6,000 collectively or an increase of 4% on February.…

Legal threats over Guido Fawkes Blog

There’s a very interesting spat happening as I type. I hasten to add I type from the Republic of Ireland and on servers hosted in Ireland (it makes sense if you read on).

There is a current injunction against the Sun and Sunday Sun in England and Wales effectively gagging them from reporting that a celebrity husband was involved in a threesome. Fair enough some might say, I’ll stick to the old adage that “three’s a crowd” – but there you have it!…

Honest, this is all you get on the Feast Days. And it’s not devotion during the day that’s the distraction, more complete the lack of abstinence!

So the brief on this is that some of the tabloids are doing well and the Sun in the morning in particular.

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Newspaper Circulation July-Dec 2015

The ABC’s for the period July to December 2015 were released today and show the continuing decline of newspaper sales in Ireland. The total market has declined by 6.2% over the twelve months, however that’s a smaller decline in overall sales then seen in a few years – if we’re viewing this as a “least worst” scenario. I think we do have to view it in those terms, as I don’t think the populous are going to have a “road to Damascus” experience anytime soon and return to buying the printed word en-masse.…

The first numbers of 2016: I’m going to be brief as the six month ABC’s have robbed most of the time.…

JNLR 2015Q4 National Listenership

Overall there was a minor drop in listenership nationally, well within statistical error and certainly not to trouble with this issue any further. National listenership remained at a healthy 83% or 3,001,000 people daily.

Focussing on the stations, the clear winner on the national stage was RTE1 in this book, with a year on year increase of 64,000 listeners (8%) and a book on book gain of 32,000 or 4%.

The veneer of 2FM’s number year on year, holding steady at 374,000, is very much tarnished when we see their more recent past.…

JNLR 2015Q4 Dublin Listenership

In Dublin listenership to overall radio listenership dipped marginally from 81% to 80%. Still the most listened to station in the capital is RTE1 commanding a 30% reach up 9% on the year or 27,000 listeners. You can see for the table at the bottom that they occupy the top five most listened to station in the capital and four of them have added numbers over the year.  Book on book they also did well managing a 3% increase in the quarter.…

There’s too much data here – so I’m going to simply provide the numbers and you can extrapolate what you want from it. In the four regions there's still a job to do to catch up with the “home locals” - which, in most cases are very dominant. On a positive note: three out of four regional stations beat RTE1 into second position.

There's also a table of all the 'franchises' - it’s interesting to see the totality of the radio market and how they all stand - comparisons are unwise as the different franchises have different populations etc.…

There were some good wins for RTE1 occupying the top five slots in the programmes that gained year on year and three of them in the weekend schedule. They also hold the top five book on book – but the emphasis there is on the weekday schedule. Today FM hold three of the five faller's berths looking at them year on year.  The main Top 30 Table below is sortable - just click on the heading and it will sort ascending and then descending (on a second click).…

Here we have a look at the different stations and their weekday offerings. This time out the year on year and book on book are explored.   

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JNLR 2015Q4 Cork Listenership

Cork was akin to a bare-knuckle scrap in the last few books  – now it looks like a mismatch and no rematch in the contract. RedFM pulled away, yet again, to 133,000 or 32% reach having added 34,000 listener’s in the year (+34%) and a more conservative 8,000 or 6% in the last quarter. Cork’s 96FM is the ultimate victim in this fight dropping 17,000 on the year (-13%) but managing to keep it steady in the last quarter. Consider, if you will, that in mid '13 they were at an untouchable 174,000 listeners per day, 70,000 ahead of their nearest rival RTE1.…

For the monthly providers of circulation data the report today the final one for 2015. This also allows us to provide their July-December numbers. For the other papers on our shelves, we will have to wait for another few weeks until they provide that data.

The December’s numbers were nothing by way of excitement with the Daily Star providing something by way of change as it managed a gain on the month of 1,200 whereas and The Sun on the other hand dropping over 700.…

And the sponsor is......

An interesting one today (Jan 20th) in the irishmirror.ie. Now, I’m all for newbrands extracting cash wherever they can, but I do believe that there really should be a bit of transparency in those transactions as well.

On the Irish Mirror’s home page there was a news block with the captivating headline (if you’re in that market) “How to save on family camping getaways - plus amazing deals on Easter and 2016 breaks”.…

Ad Blocking will hurt Publishers

I came across a very few interesting articles on the potential impact of ‘ad-blocking’ plugins on publishers revenue. The argument was the so many individuals were using ad blockers that it has become a real threat to the viability of publishers to eak out a few Euros from their digital offerings – considering that the revenues from print have being going south for the last few years.

Irish based start-up PageFair in their report on ad blocking in 2015 estimate that there were 181m active internet users with ad blockers on their browsers. This is a 41% increase in blocking usage in a year.…

ABC Circulation November 2015

The penultimate month in ’15 brings little by way of cheer. The only change in the ABC’s is that they now have a new report which measures the digital editions of the papers – not that it’s going to make a huge difference here as they report a total of 110 digital sales in November in Ireland – across all titles!

Their new format is also a little confusing as the ABC report no ‘digital edition’ sales for the Sunday Times last month but the paper has a certificate for their ‘tablet edition’ where they claim over 95,000 sales in November.

Why that’s not in the digital report is beyond me, but it’s endemic in the digital world where standards (not the moral compass type) shift and terminology and acronyms change daily.…

I let this slip by some time back, but it’s worth a quick look. Comscore recently published some data on the most popular websites accessed via a smartphone or tablet in Ireland*

You can see all the figures below and the table is sortable for those that who wish to scrutinise them a little further. No figures were published on the same sites viewed via desktop to give the full picture.…

The October ABC’s show little signs of excitement, as per normal, bar the dramatic reduction in the sales of the Daily Star Sunday. Between September and October they have dropped by over 40% to just 9,000 copies from 15,000. A drop would either have to be “self imposed” if the publisher decided to alter (dramatically) the distribution of the title or there was a third party involved like a chain dropping them. I’ll dig a little and see.…

The national picture shows that radio listenership is still in a healthy position with a reach of 83% of the population every day. While this is up 18,000 on the previous year (14Q3) it’s down marginally (3,000) on the previous book (15Q2). That small slippage also had the affect of moving the point reach from 84% in 15Q2 to 83% this time out.

On a station by station basis most gained year on year and fell on a book on book analysis.…

JNLR 2015Q3 Dublin Listenership

Dublin radio reach is slightly below the national figure at 81% and represents 829,000 adults per day. The trend in Dublin was not so healthy and back at the start of 2014 where the reach was only 78%. So there’s been somewhat of a mini resurgence in listenership over the last few books as it clawed back to 81%.

The biggest player in the Dublin market is RTE1 with a reach of 302,000 or 30%.…

There’s a lot in the regional and locals so I’m simply going to provide the ammunition: those who want can fire the bullets. All regional stations are performing well against the nationals but still have a way to go before they reach the “home local” grouping in their respective franchises. You can see from the table below where each of the national stations rank in the various franchises. It shows that, in the main, they would be second to the home locals, ahead of RTE1, in all areas, bar one.…

The Top 30 is a bit of a mess in terms of comparatives and has been thrown off kilter. The whole 2FM schedule has changed, not only in terms of characters, but, and more importantly for the purposes here, the time slots have changed making it difficult to make genuine hard comparisons.

Take for example ‘Breakfast Republic’ on 2FM. Last time out the time segment was 06.…

Here we have a look at the different stations and their weekday offerings. This time out the year on year and book on book are explored.   

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